Valuation

A seven-exhibit LBO reconstruction of the announced Grant Thornton / New Mountain take-private of CBIZ (NYSE: CBZ) at $55.00/share, $5.0bn enterprise value. Base case: 1.91x MOIC, 17.3% sponsor-net IRR over a 4.05-year hold — three-quarters of it from EBITDA growth, 40% from deleveraging, next to nothing from multiple expansion. A three-case toggle also runs a Downside (10.4% IRR) and a Stress case where the deal loses money (0.84x MOIC). The Benefits & Insurance carve-out that’s part of the real deal isn’t in the model at all, and that gap — which the 10-K’s segment data suggests understates rather than overstates the problem — is the most interesting thing about it.

From the 1911 breakup of Standard Oil to the $74 billion Exxon-Mobil stock swap of 1998: a quarter-century of oil shocks, a collapsing price floor, and the archetype merger that came out of it.